Last 32 | Carom World

Pre-Game Last 32

Group A

Breaking Down the Numbers

ELO ratings give us a great way to estimate each player’s chances. Jaspers is the clear favorite, sitting at an elite 1857 ELO, while Tran (1598) is in a strong position to claim the second spot. Cha (1463) and Tellez (1175) will need to pull off some surprises if they want to advance.

Probability of Advancing

Using ELO-based win probabilities, here’s the estimated likelihood of each player finishing in the top two:

Dick Jaspers (1857 ELO): 92% chance to advance
Tran D.M (1598 ELO): 64% chance to advance
Cha (1463 ELO): 35% chance to advance
Tellez (1175 ELO): 9% chance to advance

Matchup Insights

Jaspers’ Dominance: With an ELO of 1857, Jaspers is expected to win all three of his matches. If he plays to his usual level, he should secure first place with ease.
Tran vs. Cha – The Key Match: The battle for the second qualifying spot will likely come down to this matchup. Tran has the edge, but Cha is not far behind and could pull off an upset.
Tellez’s Challenge: As the lowest-ranked player, Tellez will need a huge performance to shake things up. Can he spoil someone’s tournament?

Final Thoughts

Jaspers is almost a lock for the next round, but the fight for second place is where things get interesting. Tran has the advantage, but Cha isn’t far behind. If an upset happens, this group could get chaotic!

Group B

A Tough Battle in Group Play!

The stakes are high as four talented players—Catano (1413 ELO), Cho (1726 ELO), Ceulemans (1675 ELO), and Forthomme (1501 ELO)—compete in a round-robin format. With only two spots available in the last 16, every match will be crucial.

Breaking Down the Numbers

ELO ratings give us an insight into expected performance. Cho (1726) enters as the top seed, followed closely by Ceulemans (1675). Forthomme (1501) and Catano (1413) are underdogs but will be looking to cause some upsets.

Probability of Advancing

Based on their ratings, here are the estimated chances of each player finishing in the top two:

Cho (1726 ELO): 76% chance to advance
Ceulemans (1675 ELO): 67% chance to advance
Forthomme (1501 ELO): 39% chance to advance
Catano (1413 ELO): 18% chance to advance

Matchup Insights

Cho vs. Ceulemans – The Battle for First? These two are the highest-rated players and favorites to advance. Their head-to-head match could decide who tops the group.
Forthomme’s Wild Card Factor: With a 1501 ELO, he has a solid chance to compete for second place. If he can steal a win against Ceulemans or Cho, things could get interesting.
Catano’s Underdog Story: As the lowest-rated player, Catano needs to pull off a major upset. Can he disrupt the favorites and make history?

Final Thoughts

Cho and Ceulemans are the favorites, but Forthomme has a real shot at shaking things up. Will there be an upset, or will the numbers hold true?

Group C

ELO Analysis: Who Are the Favorites?

The numbers suggest Merckx (1700) and Thai (1675) are the clear front-runners, while De Bruijn (1361) and Gonzalez (1062) face an uphill battle. However, anything can happen on the table!

Probability of Advancing

Based on their ratings, here’s the estimated likelihood of each player finishing in the top two:

Merckx (1700 ELO): 81% chance to advance
Thai (1675 ELO): 77% chance to advance
De Bruijn (1361 ELO): 35% chance to advance
Gonzalez (1062 ELO): 7% chance to advance

Key Matchups to Watch

Merckx vs. Thai – The Clash of the Titans: With nearly equal ELOs, this match could decide who takes the top spot.
De Bruijn’s Fight for an Upset: Sitting at 1361 ELO, he’ll need a big win against either Merckx or Thai to keep his chances alive.
Gonzalez’s Underdog Moment: At 1062 ELO, Gonzalez is a heavy underdog, but if he can pull off an upset, he could shake up the group.

Final Thoughts

Merckx and Thai are expected to go through, but De Bruijn will be looking to spoil the party. Will there be a surprise, or will the favorites hold their ground?

Group D

Another Tough Battle in a Group Play!

ELO Analysis: Who Are the Favorites?

Bao P.V (1645) enters as the slight favorite, followed closely by Tran Q.C (1628). These two players have the best odds to qualify, but Bury (1515) is not far behind and could shake things up. Polychronopoulos (1424) will need to pull off a couple of upsets to stay in contention.

Probability of Advancing

Based on their ratings, here’s the estimated likelihood of each player finishing in the top two:

Bao P.V (1645 ELO): 69% chance to advance
Tran Q.C (1628 ELO): 65% chance to advance
Bury (1515 ELO): 44% chance to advance
Polychronopoulos (1424 ELO): 22% chance to advance

Key Matchups to Watch

Bao vs. Tran – Battle for First? This could be the decisive match for the top spot. With similar ELOs, it’s expected to be a tight contest.
Bury’s Wild Card Factor: At 1515 ELO, Bury has a real shot at breaking into the top two, especially if he can snatch a win against Bao or Tran.
Polychronopoulos’ Underdog Challenge: At 1424 ELO, he has the toughest road ahead, but one upset win could throw the group into chaos.

Final Thoughts

While Bao and Tran are favorites to advance, Bury is close enough to challenge for a spot. Could we see a surprise, or will the numbers hold true?

Group E

ELO Breakdown: A Wide-Open Group

Unlike other groups with clear favorites, this one is extremely balanced. Kim (1576) holds a slight edge, but Kiraz (1544) and Hofman (1545) are nearly identical in strength. Even Legazpi (1485) is not far behind, making this a group where anything can happen.

Probability of Advancing

Based on their ratings, here’s the estimated likelihood of each player finishing in the top two:

Kim (1576 ELO): 62% chance to advance
Hofman (1545 ELO): 55% chance to advance
Kiraz (1544 ELO): 54% chance to advance
Legazpi (1485 ELO): 29% chance to advance

Key Matchups to Watch

Kim vs. Hofman – The Decisive Match? Kim has a small rating advantage, but Hofman is right behind him. A win here could determine a top-two spot.
Kiraz vs. Hofman – Neck and Neck: These two are separated by just one ELO point, making this a true 50-50 battle.
Legazpi’s Underdog Chance: Though slightly behind the others, Legazpi has a real shot if he can steal a win against one of the top three.

Final Thoughts

This is one of the most unpredictable groups in the tournament. While Kim has a slight advantage, Hofman and Kiraz are right there with him. Even Legazpi could surprise us!

Group F

ELO Breakdown: Who Are the Favorites?

Zanetti (1741) is the clear favorite in this group, with a significant rating advantage. Tran T.L (1627) follows as the next likely qualifier, while Karakurt (1475) and Kang (1432) will need to pull off some upsets to stay in the mix.

Probability of Advancing

Based on their ratings, here’s the estimated likelihood of each player finishing in the top two:

Marco Zanetti (1741 ELO): 84% chance to advance
Tran T.L (1627 ELO): 72% chance to advance
Karakurt (1475 ELO): 32% chance to advance
Kang (1432 ELO): 12% chance to advance

Key Matchups to Watch

Zanetti vs. Tran T.L – Battle for the Top Spot? These two are the highest-rated in the group and the favorites to qualify. Their match could decide who finishes first.
Karakurt’s Fight for an Upset: With an ELO of 1475, he has a small chance to challenge Tran for the second spot, but he will need to play his best.
Kang’s Underdog Moment: As the lowest-rated player, Kang needs to pull off a massive upset to stay in contention. Can he shock the group?

Final Thoughts

Zanetti is almost a lock to advance, while Tran is favored to take the second spot. However, Karakurt has an outside shot if he can steal a key win. Will we see a surprise, or will the favorites move on?

Group G

ELO Breakdown: A Two-Favorite Race?

This group features two clear favorites: Tasdemir (1677) and Horn (1673), who are nearly identical in rating. They are expected to take the top two spots, but Kim (1496) and Salman (1434) will be looking to play spoiler and shake things up.

Probability of Advancing

Based on ELO ratings, here’s the estimated likelihood of each player finishing in the top two:

Murat Naci Tasdemir (1677 ELO): 75% chance to advance
Martin Horn (1673 ELO): 74% chance to advance
Kim (1496 ELO): 35% chance to advance
Salman (1434 ELO): 16% chance to advance

Key Matchups to Watch

Tasdemir vs. Horn – The Fight for First? These two are the favorites, and their head-to-head clash could determine the group winner.
Kim’s Opportunity for an Upset: With an ELO of 1496, he needs a big win against one of the top two to have a shot at advancing.
Salman’s Underdog Story: At 1434 ELO, Salman is the least likely to qualify, but an early upset could turn the group upside down.

Final Thoughts

Tasdemir and Horn are expected to advance, but if Kim or Salman can grab a key win, the group dynamics could change fast. Will the favorites hold their ground, or are we in for a surprise?

Group H

ELO Breakdown: Who Are the Favorites?

Sidhom (1688) enters as the strongest player in the group and is the clear favorite to advance. Blomdahl (1553) and Heo (1544) are close in rating and will likely battle for the second qualifying spot. Costa (1390) will need to pull off some major upsets to stay in contention.

Probability of Advancing

Based on ELO ratings, here’s the estimated likelihood of each player finishing in the top two:

Sidhom (1688 ELO): 79% chance to advance
Blomdahl (1553 ELO): 57% chance to advance
Heo (1544 ELO): 53% chance to advance
Costa (1390 ELO): 11% chance to advance

Key Matchups to Watch

Sidhom vs. Blomdahl – The Fight for First? Sidhom is the favorite, but Blomdahl could challenge him for the top spot.
Heo vs. Blomdahl – A Decisive Battle: With nearly equal ELOs, this match could determine who takes the second qualifying spot.
Costa’s Underdog Chance: At 1390 ELO, Costa will need a perfect performance and a couple of surprises to advance.

Final Thoughts

Sidhom is the strongest candidate to advance, while the second spot is up for grabs between Blomdahl and Heo. Will the favorites hold their ground, or will an underdog shake up the standings?